Quarterly Recruitment Outlook Q4 2020: attempted recruitment increased despite November lockdown
The latest Quarterly Recruitment Outlook (QRO) by Totaljobs and the British Chambers of Commerce wraps up 2020, with data from the final quarter of the year showing that more businesses attempted to recruit overall. However, unsurprisingly, hiring levels vary significantly across sectors.
With 2021 kicking off with a mass Covid-19 vaccination programme, renewed hope for the UK’s health and economy is on the horizon. However, with this, the new year brought another lockdown, which forced businesses to close their doors once again. This is following a lockdown from 5th November which latest four weeks. As a result, the government’s furlough scheme for employees has been extended until April 2021, but many businesses are calling for further financial support to ease the impacts of Covid-19 restrictions in the meantime.
ONS data released on 26th January 2021 shows that the UK’s unemployment rate has once again increased. Findings from the Q4 2020 QRO shows that the hospitality sector remains the least likely to recruit, while the public and voluntary, manufacturing and construction sectors are among the most likely. Some predictions point to a trend of “revenge spending” once the economy is able to reopen, with pent-up consumer spending poised to drive much-needed growth for hospitality, retail and travel, once restrictions are lifted.
Key findings from Q4 2020
- 41% of firms attempted to recruit in Q4, up slightly from 37% in Q3, but this remains below pre-pandemic levels (55% in Q1 2020).
- Overall, a quarter of firms saw a decrease in the size of their workforce over the last three months.
- Looking ahead to the next quarter, 19% of firms expect an increase in the size of their workforce, 68% expect it to remain the same (up from 62% in Q3), and 14% expect a decrease.
Recruitment by business size
- Micro firms (less than 10 employees): 24% attempted to recruit (versus 23% in Q3)
- Medium-sized firmed (between 50-249 employees): 59% attempted to recruit (versus 61% in Q3)
- Larger firms (250 or more employees: 71% attempted to recruit (versus 65% in Q3)
Recruitment varies across sectors
Recruitment has increased from 37% in Q3 to 41% in Q4, but this varies across sectors, depending on how they’ve been able to operate during the tiered system and a lockdown:
| Attempted to recruit | Didn't attempt to recruit | |
|---|---|---|
| Public or voluntary | 67% | 33% |
| Construction | 56% | 44% |
| Transport and distribution | 53% | 47% |
| Production and manufacturing | 49% | 51% |
| Retail or wholesale | 40% | 60% |
| Other services | 39% | 61% |
| Professional services | 37% | 63% |
| Consumer services | 36% | 64% |
| Marketing or media | 33% | 67% |
| Hotels or catering | 22% | 78% |
Looking ahead to Q1 2021
Just shy of a fifth (19%) of firms expected the size of their workforce to increase in Q1 2021 (compared to 18% of businesses in the Q3 survey). Meanwhile, 68% of businesses expected no change to the size of their workforce in Q1 2021, slightly up from 62% in the previous quarter. Fewer firms expected their workforce to decrease in size, at 14% compared to 19% in the previous quarter.
Hiring trends on Totaljobs
Logistics, IT, administration, sales and customer service roles on Totaljobs received the most applications in Q4 2020.
Q4 saw a 26% rise in vacancies on site, when comparing October and November 2020 with Q3 before a seasonal decline over the Christmas period. Logistics and IT also lead the way, while skilled trades is the third sector posting the most roles.
The market continues to be employer-led, with candidate activity still outstripping available vacancies. Applications rose once again, by 11%, in October and November compared to Q3. In the first two weeks of January alone, Totaljobs reported 2.6 million applications to jobs on site.
It’s been widely reported that hiring levels remain below that of pre-pandemic levels, with the QRO reporting that the number of firms hiring in Q4 2020 was 41%, compared to the 57% average seen across 2018 and 2019. On Totaljobs, logistics and social care have been able to maintain their hiring at rates that are close to the levels seen in Q4 2019, with the need for more people to meet the increased demands caused by the pandemic.
Totaljobs CEO Jon Wilson comments on the findings
The vaccine rollout has given businesses and people hope, but there is still a way to go. Many sectors remain in a challenging position and have put hiring on pause, while others are able to accelerate their hiring to meet demand.
Throughout the difficulties of the pandemic, a real positive has been the increasing determination from jobseekers to take their careers into their own hands, focusing on their personal development by proactively upskilling. Totaljobs research found that 30% of workers acquired a new skill or qualification last year.
While the government’s Lifetime Skills Guarantee, set to launch this April, looks promising in its aim to drive adult education and training, changes must be made to the scheme to improve eligibility. Through this, more businesses, no matter their sector, can see the benefits of this scheme, alongside jobseekers and workers across the UK.
Download the QRO Q4 report
Find out more about the recruitment market in Q4 2020, including a regional look at recruitment, by downloading the Quarterly Recruitment Outlook:
- Due to rounding, not all percentages will add up to 100% The BCC Quarterly Economic Survey for Q4 received 5,900 responses, with fieldwork collated between 2 and 26 November 2020 The respondents were 95% SME (companies which employ fewer than 250 people) 48% of respondents were exporters Totaljobs website analytics from 28 Sept – 28 Dec 2020 Totaljobs website analytics from 28 Dec 2020 – 17 January 2021